Brazil's illegal betting decline is real — but the next phase is harder

Yogonet's latest from Brazil covers new LCA Consultores research, commissioned by IBJR and based on Locomotiva Institute polling, on the shrinking but persistent illegal betting market. The headline number: the unlicensed share of online bets fell to 38%-44% in the first half of 2026, down from 41%-51% a year earlier. The piece also flags how much of that activity still shows up in payment rails and compliance gaps, including prohibited deposit methods.

What stands out is not just the decline but the composition of the remaining illegal market. The data points to a core of younger, lower-income bettors, many of them women, who are not migrating to licensed sites. That suggests the regulated offer has won over the casual segment first, while the harder-to-reach cohort remains a challenge for enforcement and education.

The industry context matters: this is the first full-year read on a regulatory model that took effect in January 2025 and has already produced significant public revenue. But the real signal is regulatory maturation. Brazil's licensed operators have invested heavily, and further shrinkage now depends less on licensing rules than on enforcement, payment blocking and cross-agency cooperation. The study's own authors appear to acknowledge this, with Locomotiva's Renato Meirelles quoted as saying that "even those who gamble on clandestine sites believe it is the country's duty to combat them more forcefully."

For operators, the report is a reminder that market share gains from here will be won in the grey areas — payments, verification and brand trust — rather than through regulation alone. For observers, the narrowing estimate band is itself meaningful: the size of Brazil's illegal market is becoming less speculative. Read Yogonet's full piece for the methodology and the complete demographic breakdown.