Dutch gambling ad ban could drive players to black market, experts caution
2026-07-28
Source: iGaming Business
Experts warn that the Netherlands' proposed near-total gambling ad ban will likely drive players to the black market, citing evidence from Denmark and Italy where similar restrictions failed to curb illegal activity. The Dutch market's channelisation rate has already fallen to around 49%, and critics say the ban would hand illegal operators a monopoly on visibility.
A shift in regulatory philosophy
The Netherlands is moving toward a near-total prohibition on online gambling advertising, a package announced in June by state secretary Claudia van Bruggen that also includes a ban on sign-up bonuses, a cross-operator deposit limit, and an upgrade to the CRUKS self-exclusion system. Van Bruggen said she was "particularly concerned" about rising harm among young people and called it "high time to reverse this trend."
Yet industry observers argue the government has quietly abandoned the original goal of channelisation — steering players into the licensed market. Justin Franssen, partner at Franssen Tolboom, says the new mantra is now "the prevention of gambling harm," not channelisation. The results so far are stark: the Dutch regulator KSA acknowledged that the legal market's share of gross gaming revenue fell to roughly 49% in early 2025, while trade bodies estimate the black market accounts for at least a quarter of all gambling activity.
Danish and Italian precedents
Denmark, which rejected a blanket ban but tightened restrictions last October, offers a cautionary tale. Morten Rønde, outgoing director of Spillebranchen, reports that the unlicensed market "has grown almost exponentially over just three years" and channelisation dropped from 90% to 70% in 2025. He attributes the slide to advertising curbs that bind only licensed operators: "While it limits the visibility of licensed operators, it leaves the unlicensed operators untouched."
Italy’s Dignity Decree, in force since 2018, imposed a near-total advertising ban. Quirino Mancini, partner at WH Partners Italy, calls the approach "short-sighted and superficial." Eight years on, illegal gambling is thriving at an estimated €22 billion, and the ban’s impact on channelisation has been "very minimal." Loopholes abound: operators run compliant infotainment sites that carry their brands without offering real-money play.
What the data shows about effective tools
The Dutch deposit-limit regime introduced in 2024 under former state secretary Franc Weerwind provides a counterpoint. Monthly loss caps of €150 for 18- to 23-year-olds and €350 for older players, combined with affordability checks, produced measurable results. The share of players exceeding their allowance fell from 9.7% to 2.2%, and average monthly losses dropped 31%, from €116 to €80. Franssen notes that such targeted, testable measures are precisely what a harm-prevention agenda should want.
Franssen is careful not to dismiss the ambition: "The underlying idea is not necessarily bad. On the contrary, the objective is player protection, and that should absolutely be applauded." However, he warns that the cumulative effect of ad restrictions, tax rises, and mounting obligations has already pushed black-market GGR past the licensed market's. VNLOK, the trade association, counted more than 70,000 gambling ads on Meta platforms in Q4 2025 alone, over 95% of them from unlicensed operators; less than 5% were removed.
Experts predict a counterproductive outcome
Franssen argues that a total ban would "hand the entire stage to illegal operators while preventing licensed operators from informing consumers that a legal, regulated and protected alternative exists." He calls it "one of the worst policy ideas I’ve seen in many years." The KSA itself expressed concerns about a total ban and advised against it.
"The black market is like quicksilver — it always finds a way around enforcement measures," Franssen says, pointing to fines, payment blocking, and ISP blocking that are routinely circumvented. Morten Rønde offers a bleak verdict: "Everything indicates that the Dutch policymakers have already gone too far. When surveys show that the channelisation rate is down to 50%, this tells me that the market is already not working. It seems like some stakeholders are willing to put the last nail in the coffin and bury the hope of a viable gambling market."
The legislation required for a total ban will take at least two years. But as Mancini notes, the trends already in motion — a growing black market and a channelisation rate stuck around 50% — suggest that when the licensed market falls silent, the conversation about gambling will simply move somewhere the regulator cannot hear it.