Irish EU presidency faces year-end MFF deadline and gambling-levy clash

Ireland took over the presidency of the Council of the EU on 1 August, giving it a short window until December to broker agreement on the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). The European Commission has proposed a minimum budget of €2trn, roughly 1.26% of the EU’s average gross national income over the period. Prime Minister Micheál Martin has said he hopes the framework can be finalised by the end of the year and has pledged that Dublin will act as an “honest broker” between member states.

New priorities, new resources

The next MFF is being reshaped after a period in which EU spending favoured regional development, market cohesion and agricultural subsidies. The new package is intended to cover defence, IT security, migration and climate change, as well as the bloc’s productivity gap through digital competitiveness, enterprise support and workforce reskilling for technology and AI. It also includes €600bn to repay Covid-era debt and €150bn in structural and military aid for Ukraine. The Commission wants member states to rely more on EU own resources rather than direct national contributions, estimating that proposed streams such as electronic-waste and tobacco levies and contributions from large companies could generate around €58.5bn a year in 2025 prices.

Gambling tax in the frame

The own-resources debate has put a pan-EU gambling levy on the table. Romanian MEP and European Parliament Vice-President Victor Negrescu, backed by the Socialists & Democrats, has proposed a 1%-2% levy on online gambling and betting that he says could raise at least €4bn a year from 2028. Supporters argue a common tax would be a first step toward harmonising Europe’s fragmented gambling rules and would protect licensed, tax-paying operators from rivals serving EU consumers from outside regulated markets. The idea faces firm opposition from Malta, whose economy is closely tied to online gambling through Malta Gaming Authority-licensed companies and which is set to become a net contributor to the EU budget. Prime Minister Robert Abela has said he will reject an EU-wide gambling levy, arguing that taxation and fiscal sovereignty belong to member states and that a single tax would disproportionately affect Malta. Cyprus, which held the presidency immediately before Ireland, is seen as sharing similar concerns. Ireland enters the talks with a newly operational gambling regime; the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland began accepting remote betting and remote betting intermediary licence applications in February.

Time pressure and a difficult history

The calendar is tight. France’s presidential election in spring 2027 adds urgency, with far-right leader Marine Le Pen currently leading the polls and a new president in Paris potentially complicating a deal. Zsolt Darvas, a senior fellow at Bruegel, says there is a strong political incentive to reach agreement before that vote, but history argues for caution. The current 2021-2027 MFF was proposed in 2018, yet reached political agreement only in July 2020 and was formally adopted in December 2020, weeks before it entered into force. The previous cycle was proposed in 2011 and settled only in February 2013, during Ireland’s last Council presidency, after an all-night European Council summit.

Familiar dividing lines

The fundamental disputes remain familiar. Overall budget size is one of the most contentious issues, with net contributor countries led by Germany seeking deeper cuts than those proposed under the Cypriot presidency, while the Friends of Cohesion and Friends of Agriculture groups, backed by the European Parliament, argue for a larger budget. Some capitals want to protect traditional spending on cohesion and the Common Agricultural Policy; others want more resources moved toward competitiveness, innovation, defence and strategic priorities. The Commission’s plan to abolish national rebates is another flashpoint, most likely to be resisted by Austria, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, which currently benefit from correction mechanisms and may seek alternative compensation.

Darvas is cautious about expecting any particular national advantage from the Irish presidency. “I do not believe that any particular country enjoys a significant comparative advantage,” he said, adding that any presidency must build trust, identify workable compromises and navigate political sensitivities. He argues that securing a Council compromise by December would already be a significant achievement, and that anything less could put at risk a final agreement before the French election.