US tribal gaming hits record $46.2bn in FY25 but prediction markets loom large

The US tribal casino industry set a new gross gaming revenue (GGR) record of $46.2 billion in fiscal year 2025, up 5% year-on-year, according to the National Indian Gaming Commission's (NIGC) latest annual report. The tally, covering 545 facilities operated by roughly 250 tribes across 29 states, marks the 14th consecutive annual record—interrupted only by the pandemic-driven drop in 2020. NIGC Vice Chair Billy Kirkland described tribal gaming as “an important contributor to tribal economies,” adding that the Trump administration is committed to working with tribal leaders to sustain these benefits for future generations.

The commission itself has faced an uncertain period. It has operated without a confirmed chair or full three-member roster since February 2024, when former chair Sequoyah Simermeyer left for FanDuel. Commissioner Sharon Avery served as acting chair until January 2025, and Kirkland was sworn in to replace departed vice chair Jeannie Hovland. President Trump has yet to nominate a new chair. The NIGC also closed seven regional offices last November, raising industry questions about its effectiveness. Avery nevertheless praised the sector's performance: “These GGR results reflect the continued commitment of tribal regulators and operators to responsible growth and community benefit.”

Geographically, seven of eight NIGC regions posted year-over-year gains. The Sacramento region—covering California and northern Nevada—remained the powerhouse at $12.6 billion, up 4%, dwarfing the Las Vegas Strip's $5.5 billion over the same period. The Washington, D.C. region, stretching from Florida to New York, posted a 10% jump to $11.2 billion—the strongest growth rate. Oklahoma was split into two regions, each generating $3.7 billion. Other regions: St. Paul ($5.3B, +3%), Portland ($4.9B, +5%), and Phoenix ($4.2B, +5%). Only the Rapid City region (Dakotas) declined, by less than 1% to $439.8 million.

While the FY25 results show continued strength, tribal leaders warn that prediction markets pose a growing threat. Tribes in California, Wisconsin, and New Mexico have sued prediction market operators, alleging violations of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and state compacts. James Siva, chair of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association, estimated that prediction markets have already siphoned about 5% of tribal gaming revenue since late 2024. “If they are allowed to expand, we’re talking maybe we have a 25% gross gaming revenue loss within the next year,” Siva told the Journal Record, equating that to defunding key federal Indian services.

At a House subcommittee hearing this week, Indian Gaming Association Chairman David Bean criticized the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a “one-person agency” captured by private interests. “Thanks to a one-person agency, every teenager can now lose their shirt without leaving their dorm room,” Bean told lawmakers. The balanced hearing included testimony from a former CFTC general counsel, underscoring the deepening debate over these platforms.