BetMGM Extends Timeline for $500m EBITDA Goal, Citing Prediction Market Pressures

BetMGM has revised its timeline for achieving its long-term target of $500m in adjusted EBITDA, acknowledging that the current US landscape—driven by the regulatory complexity surrounding prediction markets—makes it "prudent to assume the timing of delivery will extend beyond current 2027 expectations."

The operator reported a mixed second quarter, with net revenue rising 3% year-on-year to $711m but adjusted EBITDA sliding 15% to $74m. iGaming revenue climbed 8% to $483m, while online sports betting revenue was flat at $228m. Average monthly active users fell 3% to 875,000. For the first half, net revenue reached $1.41bn (up 4%), iGaming $964m (up 8%), and online sports $431m (up 2%). H1 adjusted EBITDA dropped 9% to $99m, with average monthly actives down 6% to 925,000.

Q2 and H1 Financial Performance

Q2 net revenue: $711m (+3% YoY) Q2 iGaming: $483m (+8% YoY) Q2 online sports: $228m (flat YoY) Q2 adjusted EBITDA: $74m (-15% YoY) Q2 AMA: 875,000 (-3% YoY) H1 net revenue: $1.41bn (+4% YoY) H1 iGaming: $964m (+8% YoY) H1 online sports: $431m (+2% YoY) H1 adjusted EBITDA: $99m (-9% YoY) H1 AMA: 925,000 (-6% YoY)

BetMGM maintained its 13% gross gambling revenue market share in active markets, including 20% in iGaming and 8% in online sports. Strong tentpole events such as the FIFA World Cup and NBA Playoffs drove sports handle, though higher player generosity weighed on results.

CEO Adam Greenblatt expressed optimism that tighter restrictions on prediction markets could provide a tailwind, noting that "any future iGaming legislation and potential restrictions in prediction markets activity in sports represent even further upside." He added that the company remains confident in its long-term outlook even under current conditions.

The operator is keeping its fiscal 2026 guidance but expects results to land "towards the lower end" of the ranges: net revenue between $2.9bn and $3.1bn, and adjusted EBITDA between $300m and $350m. Support is expected from Borgata's brand refresh, the World Cup, and Alberta's regulated iGaming launch.

BetMGM highlighted recent content releases including Game of Thrones slots in Ontario (with a US rollout planned), and exclusive titles such as Rakin' Bacon, Buffalo Triple Power, and Hollywood-themed games like Elvis Presley: Viva Las Records and Marilyn Monroe Slingo.

Greenblatt commented on the broader environment: "While our industry faces regulatory complexity and an increasingly competitive environment, we remain agile and committed to our strategy that is delivering sustainable and profitable growth." He pointed to BetMGM's market-leading iGaming offering, omnichannel advantage in Nevada, and focus on high-value customers as key strengths underpinning its long-term confidence.