Flutter’s SNAI push threatens Lottomatica’s Italian online lead

Italy’s online gambling market is tightening into a two-player contest, with Flutter’s Sisal and SNAI brands now within striking distance of leader Lottomatica. According to analysts at Jefferies, Lottomatica held 30% of Italian online GGR in Q1 while Flutter followed at 27%.

Jefferies sees a narrowing gap

Jefferies views SNAI as the swing factor. Flutter’s acquisition of Sisal in August 2022 raised that brand’s online GGR share from roughly 10% to 13%, with about three percentage points of gains split between online sports betting and iGaming. Over the same recent stretch, SNAI has shed around four percentage points of online share. If Flutter can restore that lost ground, Jefferies says the group could overtake Lottomatica.

Analysts also highlighted Flutter’s record: “Flutter boasts a track record of gaining the leading market share in almost every targeted territory.” They expect Italy’s share shifts to become a central theme in coming quarters.

Scale explains why. Jefferies estimates Italy’s total gambling GGR at €22.6bn in 2025, the largest in Europe, yet online penetration is only 28% compared with 61% in the UK. It forecasts Italian online GGR growth of 9% CAGR from 2025 to 2030. Regulation reinforces the advantage for large operators: advertising curbs favour established omnichannel groups, and concession reform has cut the number of online licences from 81 to 52.

Early SNAI evidence

Flutter’s Q2 earnings call gave the first concrete indication that the SNAI turnaround may be underway. CEO Peter Jackson described Italy as delivering “exceptional levels of growth” and said Flutter’s revenue outperformed the market. The progress came despite disruption from migrating SNAI onto Flutter’s platform in April, which Jackson said caused a “brief period of share loss.” He added that June brought a sharp recovery, with active monthly player numbers up 30% and strong parlay uptake during the World Cup.

Jefferies cautioned that its own data through June still showed SNAI losing share in online sports betting and iGaming, with “no material sign” of an inflection. But the bank identified the completion of the platform migration as a potential catalyst, and Flutter’s latest commentary suggests that inflection has begun.

Historical precedent adds weight. Jefferies says Sisal has outgrown Lottomatica’s online business in seven of the last eight quarters under Flutter ownership and outperformed it in iGaming growth in all eight. SNAI also adds the retail heft Sisal lacked: the acquisition lifted Flutter’s online GGR share from 20% to 27% and its retail sports betting share from 12% to 32%, a meaningful customer-acquisition asset under Italy’s strict advertising rules.

Lottomatica responds

Lottomatica’s leadership is not ceding ground quietly. CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi told analysts the Italian online market rose 12% in Q2, accelerating to 19% in June, while Lottomatica kept gaining share in sports, iGaming and overall online. “In a mix of organic growth and M&A, we’ve gone from a marginal operator to the largest operator in the market,” he said.

Online revenue climbed 24% in Q2, or 25% on a normalized basis, and online adjusted EBITDA margin reached 58% in H1. That gives Lottomatica the financial room to defend its position. It also points to its own migration success: Planetwin365’s sports share is above its pre-migration level, with CFO Laurence Van Lancker noting a gain of 0.2 percentage points, while iGaming has clawed back about half its lost share.

Lottomatica executives stress they will not chase share at any price. “The point is not only acquiring market share, but acquiring quality market share at a sustainable cost,” Angelozzi said. Van Lancker similarly emphasized “profitable growth” and promotional discipline.

The shape of the fight

That sets up the key strategic tension. Lottomatica wants to preserve leadership without sacrificing its unusually high online profitability; Flutter is applying its global platform capabilities to two major Italian brands, with SNAI the clearest source of upside. Early indicators are encouraging for Flutter, but a single month of 30% player growth is not yet proof that SNAI’s long decline has reversed. If it has, Jefferies’ data suggests Flutter does not need to invent a new Italian success story—it needs to repeat the Sisal playbook with SNAI.