Europe Takes Divergent Approaches to Prediction Markets as Gibraltar Licenses and Czech Republic Blocks

Gibraltar has adopted the Prediction Market Regulations 2026, establishing what officials call the first jurisdiction-specific regulatory framework for prediction markets. The rules, enacted under the Gambling Act 2025, formally distinguish prediction market activity from traditional betting, gaming, or lottery classifications. Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham stated, “This is more than a new regulatory framework; it is a statement of intent,” with the aim of positioning Gibraltar “as a leading jurisdiction for responsible digital innovation.”

Gibraltar Establishes Dedicated Framework

The regulations define a prediction market as a system facilitating contracts whose value hinges on the occurrence of a specified event. A key provision, Regulation 4(3), explicitly states that prediction market activity will not be deemed betting, gaming, or lottery solely due to its characteristics. The framework grants Gibraltar’s gambling regulator authority to prohibit contracts linked to criminal activity, death, terrorism, or events that cannot be settled objectively. Licensed operators must introduce comprehensive market-integrity measures, including systems to prevent manipulation, insider trading, and wash trading, as well as robust anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing controls. The move follows Gibraltar’s earlier approvals of ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire as the territory’s first licensed prediction-market operators. Feetham added that the framework “provides regulatory certainty for a rapidly developing global industry while creating new opportunities to attract investment.”

Czech Republic Blocks Polymarket as Unauthorized Gambling

In contrast, the Czech Ministry of Finance has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, classifying its operations as unauthorized gambling under national law. The ministry added the platform to its list of illegal internet games, citing data projecting approximately $220 billion in transaction volume for 2025. Jan Řehola, Director of the Institute for Gambling Regulation, argued that “if something looks like a bet, functions like a bet and allows people to win or lose money depending on the outcome of an uncertain event, we cannot stop treating it as gambling simply because it is called a contract.” Řehola emphasized the ban was about enforcing equal rules, not stifling innovation. The Czech Republic joins a growing list of European nations that have restricted or blocked Polymarket, including Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and nine other European regulators that launched a joint enforcement initiative in June against unlicensed prediction markets.

Council of Europe Warns on Integrity Post-World Cup

Alain Berset, Secretary General of the Council of Europe, used the conclusion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup to call for stronger integrity frameworks in sports betting and prediction markets. Berset warned of “betting on every pass, every card, every corner” and described the industry as “an open door to fraud.” He noted that for the first time, FIFA welcomed a prediction market—ADI Predictstreet, a Gibraltar-licensed platform—as an official partner inside stadiums. Berset urged FIFA to start “the third half” and build an integrity framework for the 2030 World Cup. The Council of Europe previously adopted the Macolin Convention on the manipulation of sports competitions, which has been ratified by 43 states. Berset’s remarks highlight growing European scrutiny of prediction markets, both for political and sports-related contracts, as Gibraltar positions itself as a hub for the sector while other regulators enforce gambling laws against the same activity.