Netflix documentary on prediction markets draws scrutiny before release

Netflix will premiere Instadocs: The Prediction Games on 26 July, a documentary that turns a lens on the burgeoning prediction-markets sector. The film features interviews with executives from Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the largest platforms, as well as a Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator.

Controversy has already erupted around the release. Shortly after the trailer appeared online, a CNN reporter flagged trades shown in Las Vegas as potentially illegal, given a court order since March that bars Nevada residents from using such platforms. Kalshi responded that at least one of the displayed trades was made before the ban took effect, and has asked Netflix to pull the trailer, calling it misleading.

The attention comes as prediction markets – where users wager on outcomes ranging from sports and elections to entertainment and weather – have seen explosive growth. During the recent FIFA World Cup, Kalshi alone processed roughly $27bn in trading volume and attracted about 3 million users, both far exceeding its internal projections.

Regulatory headwinds are intensifying. Kalshi is fighting legal actions from multiple US states that argue its products constitute unlicensed gambling; Washington state recently obtained a court order against the company. Separately, authorities are investigating possible insider trading linked to the platform.

As prediction markets now draw tens of millions of users worldwide, The Prediction Games lands at a moment when industry oversight, market integrity, and consumer protection have become urgent topics for regulators and operators alike.