Pascal raises $9M Series A to target institutional prediction market traders

New York-based prediction market startup Pascal has secured a $9 million Series A funding round led by Union Square Ventures, building on a $6 million seed raise from last August that involved Wintermute Ventures and DBA.

The company is entering a sector dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket, whose combined valuations exceed $37 billion. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange focusing on US retail users, is valued at roughly $22 billion and reportedly in talks for further funding that could double that figure. Polymarket, which operates via blockchain-based contracts and attracts a global crypto-native audience, carries a $15 billion valuation.

Rather than going head-to-head with these platforms, Pascal is designing its offering around institutional-grade infrastructure and trading mechanics aimed at professional traders. Its core product applies a perpetual futures structure to event contracts, allowing traders to hold positions that resemble the perpetual contracts common on crypto derivatives exchanges, unlike standard yes/no contracts that expire upon resolution. The company claims this model comes with lower fees and features that reduce “phantom fills”—trades that appear to execute but never settle.

Cofounder Ivo Crnkovic-Rubsamen told Fortune he wants to see “liquid markets for the types of risks that real businesses face.” He and cofounder Matthew Downey met through institutional trading work. Crnkovic-Rubsamen previously served as a quantitative trader at Bridgewater Associates and D.E. before becoming CEO of crypto derivatives exchange dYdX in 2024, while Downey brings a background in high-frequency crypto trading. The pair say their frustrations with existing prediction market platforms drove them to build tools suited for serious traders.

Pascal entered private beta in June and remains there, with the company declining to disclose current trading volumes.

The prediction market category has grown rapidly over the past year, with advertising appearing at events like World Cup matches and in New York City’s subway system. Regulatory momentum grew after Kalshi gained CFTC approval in 2020, and attention intensified during the 2024 US presidential election. However, scrutiny has followed: several US states are investigating whether event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling, and multiple lawsuits are pending over whether federal or state authorities should oversee these markets.

Analysts highlight three developments to watch: whether Pascal obtains regulatory approvals or no-action letters that distinguish it on compliance, how quickly it attracts market makers to supply institutional-level liquidity, and whether its perpetual futures mechanic generates sustained trading volume once the platform exits private beta.