Italy blocks Polymarket as Gibraltar unveils first dedicated prediction markets regime

European regulators continue to diverge on how to treat prediction markets. Italy has become the latest jurisdiction to block the crypto-based platform Polymarket, while Gibraltar has published the world's first standalone regulatory framework for the vertical, granting a licence to its first operator.

The Italian Customs and Monopolies Agency (ADM) added Polymarket to its blacklist of unauthorised gambling websites. It is the second time the regulator has taken such action; the platform was previously blocked in late 2025 but briefly unblocked after a court challenge. The ADM now requires a report to the Rome Public Prosecutor’s Office, potentially opening criminal proceedings. Stefano Tino, Betsson’s Southern Europe managing director, welcomed the move, stating: “I was pleased to learn that Polymarket has now been added, again, to the ADM blacklist … I would like to congratulate the Italian regulator for reaffirming … the same rules must apply to everyone.”

The Italian decision carries commercial consequences. Serie A club SS Lazio signed Polymarket as its main sponsor in April 2026 in a €19m deal running through 2027–28, but Italian penal law prohibits advertising of unlicensed betting, placing the club at risk of a breach.

Italy’s action follows a broader European clampdown. In June, nine European gambling regulators – from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain – announced a joint initiative against prediction markets, warning over player protection and market integrity. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has cautioned that certain prediction products structured as binary yes-or-no contracts with fixed payouts may fall under EU restrictions on marketing binary options to retail customers. Polymarket has already been blocked in France (2024), Belgium (2025) and temporarily in Spain (April 2026).

Gibraltar’s framework

Meanwhile, Gibraltar has taken the opposite approach. The Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry, led by minister Nigel Feetham, published regulations on Monday that formally establish prediction markets as a distinct statutory category under the Gibraltar Gambling Act 2025. Feetham described the 24-page document as “the first dedicated framework of its kind anywhere in the world.”

The framework adopts an activity-based, risk-based approach covering market integrity, participant protection, AML, governance and operational resilience. Operators must obtain approval for all event contracts, which must be “clear, capable of objective settlement, not readily susceptible to manipulation and consistent with the regulatory objectives.” The authority can prohibit contracts relating to criminal conduct, death, serious injury, terrorism, or war.

An independent supervisory panel will oversee implementation. Feetham noted that the regulator has received “significant interest from a number of prospective applicants, including some globally recognised businesses.”

First licensees

The first prediction market licence in Gibraltar was awarded to ADI Predictstreet earlier this year under a “betting intermediary” licence before the new act was fully in force. US betting marketplace WagerWire is on track to become the second licence holder, with a planned B2B and B2C product launch by the NFL preseason in August. Co-founder Travis Geiger said: “I think this is the beginning of the end of the wild west and the taming of the frontier … I believe that their framework will be adopted by countries that either have or don’t have their own gaming authority.”

Feetham acknowledged that “internationally, there remains no settled consensus as to how prediction markets should be characterised” – a gap that Gibraltar’s regime seeks to fill by providing a dedicated option separate from gambling or financial regulation. The announcement coincides with ESMA’s reaffirmed position on binary-outcome prediction contracts and the joint European regulator initiative, underscoring the fragmented global landscape.